Maharashtra political crisis: Shiv Sena strongman rebels; BJP senses chance for 'Operation Lotus'

Uddhav Thackeray

It's disadvantage Shiv Sena ever since the party forged an alliance with the NCP and Congress. This is not just a line the BJP has stuck to, but Uddhav Thackeray's party leaders too have been complaining about it. While Thackeray remained inaccessible due to the pandemic and his surgery, he did try to address complaints of discrimination by NCP ministers who are in charge of important departments like finance, it was perhaps not enough to stem the resentment. Also, rebel Eknath Shinde has been raising Sena's compromise on its core Hindutva ideology.

While the NCP controls departments that are key to reaching out to the people, Sena's second-run leadership and MLAs will be facing off in polls with the BJP, which says the party has compromised on its core Hidutva ideology.

Leaders and MLAs, from Sena and its associates, have openly expressed their displeasure over the inaccessibility of the CM, who is also their party leader. The pandemic and illness of Thackeray restrained him from interacting with his legislators or visiting their constituencies.

Complaints of discrimination by NCP ministers who are in charge of important departments like finance have been pouring in. Ashish Jaiswal had complained against bias in fund allotment and intrusion by other ruling parties in their constituencies. The CM had scrapped the orders or tenders that non-Sena ministers had approved after the complaint. Shinde himself made the CM stall IPS officers' transfers and revise it as per his wish.

Pandemic and his health kept Uddhav Thackeray from his own party men. File pic

Lately, Thackeray started working on the grievances and tried to take matters into his hand. He gave MLAs a hearing and promised to rectify discrimination. Acting on complaints, he issued an order that transfers cannot be done after a certain deadline.

But he couldn't stop the expression of unrest, especially in Rajya Sabha in which the independents gave the Sena a short shrift, and later the MLC polls which gave the disgruntled MLAs an opportunity to vent out their frustration without letting others know because of a secret ballot. However, cross-voting was established when the Sena polled less than its official numbers and associates. The Sena lost one seat in Rajya Sabha, while somehow managed to win two MLC seats, because of cross-voting by its MLAs and associates.

Like other parties, the Sena's second-rung also has its loyalties split between biggies in the party, for instance, Eknath Shinde and others like Aaditya Thackeray, Anil Parab, Sanjay Raut. Veterans Divakar Raote and Subhash Desai were asked not to contest the MLC polls and instead work for the party.

The biggies have also accused the top leadership of being preferential and deliberately promoting certain people who were nowhere while others built the party by fighting in the streets. Among young leaders Varun Sardesai holds a considerable sway becasue of being Aaditya's maternal cousin. Anil Parab has been given a very special place in the party affairs. The CM's private secretary Milind Narvekar, who is also the party's secretary, wields authority. Many prominent leaders, Ramdas Kadam and Raote, who were seen in action till 2019, have gone missing after Thackeray became the CM.

The rookies rule the roost as we rot into rust, say the second rung leaders and MLAs, who are equally concerned about their future in case the party departs from Hindutva or dilutes it while taking on the aggressive BJP.

What could be or not be

>> Eknath Shinde remains steady. He doesn't go back to the Shiv Sena with his supporters. Instability prevails and political uncertainty makes more Sena MLAs join him. If he manages to have two thirds of the Sena's strength of 55 on his side, then he forms his own group and saves all from disqualification. The group either merges with the BJP or supports the single largest party to form the government.

>> Shinde and his supporters resign. Some MLAs from other parties, such as the Congress which is equally infested by dissidence, also quit. The MVA government faces a no-confidence motion or resigns before facing the floor test. The resigned MLAs contest by elections. They are rehabilitated by the BJP in the government and other places. The defeated ones are made MLCs through the governor's quota.

>> Shinde and other rebels do not resign. The Sena does not expel MLAs but sacks the ministers among them, and keeps their MLA status intact. In this situation, the MLAs cannot go against the party's official whip or directives to be followed in the legislature, or else they get disqualified.

>> Considering Shinde's demand, the Sena breaks alliance with the Congress and NCP. Shinde comes back with his men. The BJP and Sena are back together in the saddle.

>> The Sena continues to work with Congress and NCP, lands in a minority. As utter chaos prevails, the governor recommends President's Rule. The interim period is used to forge yet another alliance. If not, then the state goes to mid-term polls.

How will this impact BMC polls?

If Shinde's mutiny results in the BJP's comeback in the state government, it will impact the BMC polls most, because conventionally, the ruling party enjoys the edge in local elections. The BJP emerged as a formidable opposition in BMC falling two members short of the Sena in 2017. But it did not form a government. It played friends with the Sena then hit it hard. Shinde's exit will also impact his fiefdom, Thane, where civic polls will be held. Stopping Shinde and BJP even short of winning will be revenge for the Sena.