07 June,2024 06:48 AM IST | Mumbai | Prajakta Kasale
MVA leaders at a press conference before the polls in Mumbai. Pic/Sayyed Sameer Abedi
Based on the performance of both alliances in the current Lok Sabha election at the Assembly level, the MVA (Maha Vikas Aghadi) is projected to have an edge in 20 out of 36 Assembly seats, while Mahayuti holds an advantage in 16 seats for the upcoming Assembly election in Maharashtra. When undivided Shiv Sena-BJP contested together, they led in 30 Assembly seats in the Lok Sabha 2019 results, with BJP securing victory in 16 and Shiv Sena in 14 seats during the subsequent Assembly election held in November of the same year.
The Assembly elections are set for October/November this year. The results hinge on factors like seat allocation, candidates, local issues, combined coalition votes, temporary concerns, and voter turnout. If MVA (with Congress, Sena-UBT, and NCP-SP) and Mahayuti (with BJP, Sena, and NCP) maintain their alliances, MVA currently holds a slight edge based on the recent Lok Sabha voting trends. However, MVA might not replicate Sena-BJP's success in the 2019 Assembly election. In seven Assembly areas, both alliances are closely matched, with margins below 3 per cent, indicating potential changes in results.
The Mahayuti leaders during the Lok Sabha elections. File pic
In Mumbai, MVA won four parliamentary seats, while Mahayuti won two. Each Lok Sabha seat comprises six Assembly seats, totalling 36 in the city. According to the Assembly-wise results under each Lok Sabha seat, MVA secured more votes in 20 assembly seats, while Mahayuti candidates led in 16 seats.
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Although the statistics from the Lok Sabha election cannot precisely predict the outcome, they provide a decent indication. In the 2019 elections, the Lok Sabha Assembly-wise and Vidhan Sabha results were nearly identical in the state. In the previous election, Shiv-Sena and BJP won all six seats in Mumbai, with a majority of votes in 30 Assembly-wise areas. In the assembly election, BJP won 16 out of 17 seats, while Sena won 14 out of 19 seats.
Congress secured four, and NCP and SP each got one seat. However, in 2019, the winning margin was substantial, and this was reflected in the Assembly-wise seats. In this election, three out of six candidates won with a margin of less than 30,000 votes, and there are seven Assembly seats where the margin is barely 2 to 3 per cent. In these seats, the result may change due to other factors and the political scenarios at that time.
