Next on BJP’s horizon: BMC elections?

BJP’S female supporters celebrate at Eknath Shinde’s Malabar Hill residence Varsha Bungalow. Pic/Shadab Khan

Former chief minister and BJP's chief strategist in the recently-concluded Maharashtra assembly elections, Devendra Fadnavis' stunning return to the political centrestage has made everyone ask the inevitable question: Will power dynamics shift in the urban local bodies, too, and will the next state government pave the way for municipal elections in the state, including in Mumbai?

The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) is India's richest civic body (FY 2023-24 budget was over R52,000 crore) and was scheduled to go the polls in early 2022. Yet, for nearly three years, there have no elections for the 227 corporator seats in the BMC, leaving the city's administration to the commissioner and his team of bureaucrats; first under Iqbal Singh Chahal, and later under Bhushan Gagrani.

BJP's stunning landslide win in the state election is likely to give a fillip to the party's confidence of changing the equations at the local level, too, and therefore, defeating its arch-rival and former alliance partner Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray). Even before the declaration of the results on Saturday, the Mission 150 slogan that the BJP had coined for the party's BMC campaign in 2023 resurfaced. In fact, party insiders feel 150 is too low. In a conversation with Sunday mid-day, Ravi Raja, vice president, Mumbai BJP, said on Saturday evening, "Going by the state assembly election results, the revised target for Mahayuti (BJP, Shiv Sena -Shinde, NCP - Ajit Pawar) would be 175-180 and not 150."

Raja, a former Congress leader of opposition in the BMC who recently joined the BJP, emphasised the need for civic elections to be held soon. BJP sources said that elections could be held as early as the first quarter of 2025. Raja told Sunday mid-day, "The next Mumbai mayor will be from Mahayuti. With a change in guard, Mumbaikars will see better governance and speedy implementation of the infrastructure projects."

A united Shiv Sena (which split into the Eknath Shinde and UBT factions in October 2022) had asserted its dominance in city politics and administration as early as in the 1970s under the late party founder and supremo Bal Thackeray following a fierce and long-drawn battle with left-leaning trade unions. Over the past few years, however, Shiv Sena's hold over Mumbai has been weakening.

The Sena-BJP saffron alliance ruled the corporation for over two decades since the 1990s. In 2014, this alliance broke at the city level and both parties decided to contest the 2017 elections independently. The undivided Shiv Sena won 84 of the 227 seats, while a strong BJP showing meant that it won 82 (from 51 in 2012). This is the parity that the BJP wants to demolish. The Shiv Sena managed to hold onto power in 2017 with support from independents and smaller parties. In 2025, however, the same independents and smaller parties may not be inclined to show their support, especially if the UBT faction of the Sena performs weakly.

Take the assembly election results. In Mumbai, of the 21 seats contested by the UBT camp, it managed to retain only ten, compared to 14 MLAs in 2019 (of the then undivided Shiv Sena). The BJP, on the other hand, won 15 of the 18 assembly seats it contested in Mumbai, one less than 2019. The BJP, which has been using "strike rate" (number of seats won in relation to those contested) as its new performance benchmark, has pointed out that the UBT's assembly seat strike rate in Mumbai is 47.62% compared to its 83.33%.

In February 2023, in a state executive meeting in Nashik, the BJP gave its call for ‘Mission 150' for the BMC elections. The then-incumbent BJP MLA from Kandivli Atul Bhatkhalkar had proposed the resolution which was seconded by party MLA Amit Satam. BJP's chief spokesperson for Maharashtra Keshav Upadhye stated on Saturday that Fadnavis had played a key role in several important infrastructure projects in Mumbai, especially the Metro rail network. "Now, too, the BJP is committed to developing a bigger Metro network, and the party will continue to work towards its goal," Upadhye told Sunday mid-day.

Meanwhile, the Shiv Sena (UBT) said on Saturday that it will continue its fight against what it calls "the dictatorship" and that "we will leave no stone unturned to keep our base and bastion intact." Shiv Sena (UBT), MP and spokesperson Sanjay Raut said defeat is not a new thing for the party rank and file. "Post formation of Shiv Sena, the party has witnessed several defeats. But it always made a comeback. Now, too, our base will see a comeback. Shiv Sainiks are known to be fighters," Raut said. On BJP's electoral juggernaut, he added, "One cannot expect fair elections as long as BJP leaders are in power at the Centre. As a party, we will put our shoulders to the wheel to retain the BMC."