Maharashtra elections 2024: How BJP shifted poll narrative to Vote Jihad

Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis. Pic/Shadab Khan

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), part of the incumbent Mahayuti alliance, has a new narrative just days before Maharashtra goes to the polls on November 20. It's called ‘vote jihad', and the mainstreaming began with the release of a report last week at a Tata Institute of Social Sciences (TISS) seminar titled ‘Illegal Immigrants to Mumbai: Analysing Socio-economic and Political Consequences'.

City BJP leader Kirit Somaiya spotlighted the report at a November 9 press conference saying it is a larger ‘vote jihad' conspiracy to garner minority votes. The next day, Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis echoed the ‘vote jihad' in an election rally at Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar (formerly Aurangabad).

Maharashtra Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis. Pics/Shadab Khan

'Vote jihad should be countered with a vote dharma yuddh'

"Vote jihad should be countered with a vote dharma yuddh," he said at the rally. Fadnavis alleged that the Maha Vikas Aghadi or MVA (Congress, Shiv Sena Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray, NCP Sharadchandra Pawar) have exploited minority votes to win past elections. "We were not awake then," he said. "We are awake now." In a reference to Aurangabad's name change (the city was named after erstwhile Mughal ruler Aurangzeb), he added, "No one will dare to change the name back."

This sudden shift in rhetoric redirected the Mahayuti's campaign focus from ‘Ladki Bahin' (Dear Sister) and other welfare schemes to a Hindutva-centred appeal. Consequently, the political landscape in Maharashtra has intensified this week, inviting opposition counterpoints saying BJP's poll plank is divisive and contrary to electoral codes.

On Monday, for instance, AIMIM President Asaduddin Owaisi said, "When they don't get votes, they resort to jihad." Fadnavis on his part doubled down, countering, "They are descendants of Razakars who tortured the people of Marathwada, looted their land, and destroyed hundreds of families."

Union Home Minister Amit Shah added to the BJP's poll position this week by saying his party will bring an anti-conversion law into effect if voted into power. Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his election rallies in Maharashtra coined "Ek Hain to Safe Hain" (We are safe if we are one), a slogan he is expected to repeat in his Mumbai rally on Thursday.

What is vote jihad?

To be sure, ‘vote jihad' is not a new slogan. It had previously featured in an October rally by Fadnavis where he attributed BJP's underperformance in certain Lok Sabha constituencies to this alleged phenomenon. Speaking in Kolhapur last month, he stated, "In 14 out of 48 Lok Sabha constituencies in Maharashtra, ‘vote jihad' was a factor. Hindutva thought needs to awaken if anti-Hindu leaders are being elected to top positions."

Shiv Sena UBT leader Aaditya Thackeray. PIC/KIRTI SURVE PARADE

The TISS report

Later, on November 5, TISS hosted a national seminar at its Deonar campus to discuss the above-mentioned report's findings, bringing together academics, policymakers, government officials, and experts from across India. According to the institute, the seminar facilitated in-depth discussions on socio-economic issues, healthcare, and the political impact of illegal immigration in Mumbai.

Professor Shantishree Dhulipudi Pandit, vice-chancellor of Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, was the chief guest and keynote speaker, while Sukh Ram Meena, former director general in the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, was the guest of honour.

Professor Shankar Das, pro vice-chancellor of TISS and principal investigator of the study, along with assistant professor Souvik Mondal, the co-principal Investigator, presented the report. Das highlighted a significant gap in understanding the real-time impact of illegal immigration on Mumbai's socio-economic and urban landscape. He stressed the need for comprehensive policy responses that address these complexities while ensuring stability and security.

"Mumbai's population and resource challenges are only part of the story," he said. "We need a deeper understanding of how illegal immigration affects employment, access to services, and the socio-political environment." Mondal provided insights into the research methodology, emphasising the importance of a multidisciplinary approach to tackle issues like cultural displacement, rising crime, housing shortages, healthcare strain, and risks of "radicalisation."

Speaking with mid-day, Prof Mondal said the six-month study involved a sample size of 3,000 individuals, with findings based on both primary and secondary data. "This study is rooted in extensive literature review and a systematic approach to understand the gaps in existing research," he said. BJP leaders, including Fadnavis and Somaiya, have since been using the report as validation of their allegations of ‘vote jihad'.

Former BJP MP Kirit Somaiya. PICS/SAYYED SAMEER ABEDI

Shiv Sena UBT leader and Worli candidate Aaditya Thackeray responded critically, questioning the Union government's role in border security and the infusion of illegal immigrants into the country. "The Home Minister must answer how illegal immigrants manage to enter the country and travel to Mumbai from Bangladesh," he said in an interview to PTI, and also challenged the timing of the report.

Mondal told mid-day that the pathways of immigration from Bangladesh and Myanmar through eastern states to Mumbai can be perplexing since "Mumbai has no direct border with any neighbouring country, yet immigrants keep arriving here." He said most survey respondents shared that their first residences in India were in states such as West Bengal, Assam, Jharkhand, and Bihar, before migrating to Mumbai.

When asked about the report's political reception, Mondal said, "This report serves an academic purpose. The larger goal is to encourage informed dialogue and shape policies that foster socio-economic harmony." An NCP leader from the Ajit Pawar faction (part of the Mahayuti alliance) told mid-day, "We don't endorse the ‘Vote Jihad' and ‘Batenge to Katenge' narrative. Many of our candidates are Muslims, and such rhetoric will only create a divide among Maharashtrian Muslims and spread unwarranted tension."

Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, on the other hand, joined the nationwide BJP mainstreaming of the party's latest rhetoric. In a rally in Achalpur in Maharashtra on Tuesday, he said, "Maharashtra could become a base for love jihad and land jihad. The state should not become a laboratory for such practices." He said the MVA fostered division and "created an environment that could threaten the safety and security of the state's citizens."

Speaking with mid-day, Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sushma Andhare said, "What's happening in Maharashtra's political scene is BJP's same old divisive politics, combined with Devendra Fadnavis's extreme negativity. They seem to be getting feedback that their hollow welfare schemes and political sops like Ladki Bahin have failed to impress the people of Maharashtra. It was evident to me in every part of the state I visited and every person I met. In my opinion, they've realised they are losing in many seats, which is why they've started pushing this ‘vote jihad' and ‘batenge-katenge' narrative."

Congress leader Sachin Sawant remarked, "This is typical of BJP leaders during election season. When all else fails and they're facing the prospect of a miserable loss, they resort to narratives like ‘Vote-Jihad,' ‘Ek hai toh safe hai,' and ‘Katenge to Batenge.' This is just another attempt to polarise votes."

BJP's Somaiya said the TISS report "clearly states that Hindu population in Mumbai will decrease by 54% by 2051, while the number of Bangladeshis and Rohingyas is increasing." He added, quoting the report, "The Hindu population in Mumbai was 88% in 1961, which declined to 66% in 2011. At the same time, the Muslim population saw an increase from 8% in 1961 to 21% in 2011. Today, at places like Govandi, Mankhurd, Mumbra, Mumbadevi, Naya Nagar, Bhiwandi, etc, there is a huge population of Bangladeshi migrants and Rohingya Muslims. Hence, (Congress leader) Rahul Gandhi wants Vote Jihad, while Yogi says Batenge to Katenge and and Modi ji says Ek hain toh safe hain."

A Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction) leader told mid-day, "We are focusing on promoting our work and public welfare schemes, as we have a solid report card to present. The issues of ‘vote-jihad' or ‘batenge katenge' are being raised by the BJP, and we have chosen to stay away from them for now. This is not our issue."

State BJP chief spokesperson Keshav Upadhye told mid-day, "It's not us, but the Congress and MVA alliance who resort to vote polarisation and divisive politics. We're simply following the slogan Modiji has given us, ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas.' As for ‘Vote Jihad,' we're merely pointing to what we witnessed as recently as the 2024 Lok Sabha election. In Malegaon, we saw a clear case of one-sided voting. The BJP was ahead by 1.90 lakh votes in Dhule, but in the Malegaon assembly segment, there were 1.94 lakh votes that shifted the result. We lost by just 4,000 votes. This ‘Vote Jihad' was the reason for our defeat there, not because we weren't united. The Opposition claims we're trying to polarise votes on religious grounds, but in reality, it's the MVA who resort to such tactics."

What is the TISS report about?

A newly released report from the TISS Mumbai highlights the profound impact of illegal immigration on Mumbai's socio-economic landscape. The report, titled Illegal Immigrants to Mumbai: Analysing Socio-economic and Political Consequences, talks about the "challenges posed by the growing population of Bangladeshi and Rohingya immigrants in the city."

Researchers warn of potential consequences for infrastructure, public services, and local employment, and suggest stricter immigration controls to manage the strain on the city's resources.