Maharashtra assembly elections 2024: Will criminal cases against 60 per cent of MLAs affect voter decisions in Mumbai?

As the state gears up for the Maharashtra assembly elections 2024, one figure has sparked widespread concern: 60 per cent of sitting MLAs have declared criminal cases against them. This statistic raises crucial questions about voters' priorities and the ethical standards of political representatives. With public awareness on the rise, particularly in urban centres like Mumbai, it's worth asking: will criminal records impact voter decisions?

The report:

The presence of criminal cases against a majority of candidates has long been part of India's electoral reality. The Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) reports that over 60 per cent of Maharashtra's assembly hopefuls have pending criminal cases, some involving serious charges like corruption and violent crimes.

The Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) ahead of the Maharashtra Assembly elections 2024 released a report showing that 60 per cent of current legislators are in the state.

The analysis is based on the affidavits submitted by the candidates before the 2019 Assembly elections and byelections conducted thereafter.

The analysis reveals that around 60 percent (164) of the MLAs in the outgoing Maharashtra Assembly have reported criminal cases against themselves, with at least 39 per cent (106) declaring serious criminal cases.

The ADR analysis indicates that at least 10 MLAs have reported cases of attempted murder, while 12 MLAs have disclosed cases related to crimes against women.

The ADR analysis reports that two sitting MLAs have disclosed criminal cases related to murder, 10 have reported cases involving attempted murder, and a total of 12 sitting MLAs have declared cases related to crimes against women.

As far as political parties are concerned, 62 (60%) out of 103 MLAs from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have criminal cases, 25 (63%) out of 40 MLAs from Nationalist Congress Party, 22 (58%) out of 38 MLAs from Shiv Sena (Shinde), 20 (54%) out of 37 MLAs from Congress, 9 (56%) out of 16 MLAs from Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), 6 (50%) out of 12 MLAs from Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar), and 9 (75%) out of 12 Independent MLAs have declared criminal cases against themselves in their affidavits.

The public's reaction to criminal candidates

While some consider this the "new normal" in politics, others feel the tide may be turning as voter awareness rises.

As Sunil Dighe, a Girgaon resident, puts it, "Voters in Mumbai are getting tired of empty promises. This time, the background of candidates will be a big issue."

Milind Vanarse noted, "People are starting to recognise the power of their vote. Criminal cases against candidates are no longer dismissed as formalities - there's an increasing demand for accountability and clean politics."

Sunil Dighe added, "The electorate is evolving. In places like Mumbai, there is a shift where criminal records are seen as a disqualifier rather than a minor flaw."

Will Mumbai voters prioritise integrity?

Mumbai's voters have been known to prioritise issues like infrastructure, job creation, and public safety. However, this election could be different, with more voters scrutinising candidates' backgrounds.

Priya Kamath, a college student from Andheri, voiced her frustration, saying, "It's shocking to see candidates with serious charges being allowed to contest. We deserve leaders who don't have these question marks over their heads."

A senior journalist stated, "Voters are increasingly wary of candidates with dubious records. They are now seeking leaders who are not only effective but also ethical, making criminal records a more crucial aspect of their decision-making process."

Influence of identity politics and local issues

Despite the focus on criminal backgrounds, voters often balance this information against local issues and personal loyalties. In many communities, candidates with a strong local presence or economic backing still hold significant sway, even if they face criminal allegations.

Commenting on this, Manoj M, a Girgaon resident, stated, "For some voters, practical needs come first - if a candidate has a record but can bring tangible improvements, they might get the vote. It's a paradox, but it reflects the complexities of Indian democracy."

Priya Salgaonkar, a Dadar resident, observed, "Identity politics, family loyalties, and economic incentives still play a big role. A criminal record may not always trump these deep-seated factors, especially in areas where people rely on local leaders for everyday support."

The power of social media:

Social media is driving a new level of transparency in politics. Information on candidates' backgrounds, including criminal records, circulates quickly online, creating a more informed electorate - particularly among younger voters.

Rajesh Singh, a banker from Borivali, remarked, "Social media has empowered the common voter. They're aware, they're vocal, and they're questioning candidates like never before. Young voters want clean candidates who are in touch with their needs, not their wallets."

Kavita Naik said, "Platforms like Instagram and X (formerly Twitter) have become spaces where young people discuss the kind of leaders they want. Criminal records have become part of the conversation, and this could make an impact at the ballot box."

Will criminal records be a deciding factor?

The presence of criminal cases against such a large portion of candidates might indeed be a game-changer for Maharashtra's elections. While the electorate's response remains unpredictable, many believe this trend of scrutiny will only grow stronger in future elections.

Political science professor who wished not to be named said, "Voters today are more informed and skeptical. They want transparency and good governance. Criminal cases are an issue now, and if parties don't pay attention, they could face a backlash."

Businessman Anil Deshmukh shared a similar sentiment, saying, "As a taxpayer, I feel we should expect our leaders to be accountable. Ironically, so many candidates with questionable records are asking us for votes. This time, it might be different."

In the end, whether or not criminal cases influence voter decisions in Mumbai remains to be seen. However, the conversation around candidate accountability is growing louder, and this election may serve as a litmus test for the future of clean governance in India's political landscape.