The future of Shiv Sena post-split: Which faction holds the power?

As the state gears up for the Maharashtra assembly elections 2024, one of the biggest questions hanging in the air is the future of the Shiv Sena, a party that has long been a key player in the state's political arena. The Shiv Sena has seen significant changes since its formation in 1966, but the internal rift that surfaced in 2022 led to a historic split, reshaping the political landscape. Now, the Shiv Sena finds itself divided into two factions: the Uddhav Thackeray-led Sena (UBT) and the Shinde-led Shiv Sena faction, which broke away to form an alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). As both sides prepare for a political showdown in the assembly elections, experts and party insiders weigh in on which faction may hold the upper hand.

Background: The Shiv Sena split and its aftermath

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The seeds of the Shiv Sena split were sown during the party's tenure in the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance with the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), a partnership that left traditional Sena loyalists uneasy. Many within the party argued that the partnership diverted Shiv Sena from its foundational Hindutva ideology. In 2022, Eknath Shinde led a faction of Shiv Sena legislators to align with the BJP, taking with him a substantial share of the party's support base. The result was a bifurcation that left the Uddhav Thackeray-led faction with a weakened political base but resilient brand loyalty.

The power struggle: Who holds the real Shiv Sena mandate?

Political analysts remain divided on which faction truly holds the Shiv Sena's mandate and will emerge as the dominant force in the upcoming elections.

"Historically, Shiv Sena has drawn its power from its connection to the Marathi-speaking electorate, its Hindutva roots, and the legacy of Bal Thackeray," explains a senior political observer. "The Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) is committed to preserving the family name and its heritage. While the Shinde-led Shiv Sena, backed by the BJP, has embraced a pragmatic strategy that appeals to voters. This duality may benefit both sides in different regions of Maharashtra, but whether either can independently draw the majority of Shiv Sena's support remains a matter of strategy and mobilisation."

Shinde's alliance with the BJP has brought significant resources and political clout to his faction. Many argue that this relationship positions the Shinde-led Shiv Sena to wield greater administrative power. However, others believe Uddhav Thackeray's faction, with its deep-seated ideological foundation, may capture the hearts of traditional Shiv Sena voters who revere Bal Thackeray's legacy and see Uddhav as the rightful heir.

Political analyst Abhay Deshpande noted that the upcoming assembly elections are expected to be a close contest between Shiv Sena and Shiv Sena (UBT).

"Analysing the Lok Sabha election results, both the Shiv Sena and Shiv Sena (UBT) contested directly in 13 constituencies. Of these, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena won seven seats, while the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) captured six. This suggests that we can expect a close contest between the two factions in the upcoming Maharashtra assembly polls. The one advantage for the Shinde-led Sena is its 42 sitting MLAs, giving it a slight edge over Shiv Sena (UBT)," he said.

Commenting on alliances, Deshpande noted that the contest between the Maha Vikas Aghadi and Mahayuti will be both interesting and closely fought.

"The unity within the MVA appears to be tested, as reflected in the discussions related to seat-sharing. It remains to be seen if they can mount a strong challenge against Mahayuti. On the other hand, Mahayuti seems to have gained an advantage by introducing popular schemes like the Ladki Bahin Yojana. These initiatives give Mahayuti an edge over the MVA. Overall, it promises to be an interesting and closely contested fight between the two alliances," he said.

Shiv Sainiks' perspective: Loyalty, legacy and leadership

The Shiv Sainiks, the party's grassroots workers, find themselves at a crossroads, torn between loyalty to the Thackeray family and the allure of a powerful alliance with the BJP.

"Many of us have given our entire lives to the party because of Balasaheb's vision," shares long-time Shiv Sena (UBT) worker Suresh S. "For us, Uddhav ji represents that legacy. However, we understand the importance of stability and the benefits that come from being aligned with the BJP. But loyalty runs deep, and for some of us, leaving Uddhav ji is simply not an option."

On the other hand, supporters of the Shinde faction see the partnership with the BJP as a pathway to greater development for Maharashtra. "Eknath Shinde is a genuine leader. He made a courageous decision to protect the party's Hindutva principles. By aligning with the BJP, he's prioritising the people of Maharashtra," says a Shiv Sena worker who switched to the Shinde camp. "To foster progress and stability in Maharashtra, the alliance between the Shiv Sena and BJP is a must."

Shiv Sena spokesperson and Deputy Leader Sheetal Mhatre stated that her party is confident of winning the elections, asserting that the Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) has focused solely on criticism, which will ultimately lead to their defeat.

"Obviously, Mahayuti will win these elections. The MVA has done nothing substantial and appears divided rather than united. Currently, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Sena (UBT) has 12 MLAs, while we have around 50. If Uddhav Thackeray couldn't manage the MLAs he had, how will he lead his party to victory? And what did he accomplish during his two-and-a-half years in power? When Uddhav Thackeray was Chief Minister, instead of focusing on development, he halted ongoing projects. Merely criticising Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena or seeking sympathy from the public won't earn him votes. In contrast, Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has delivered solid work throughout his tenure. Under his leadership, we have launched major projects like Metro 3, Samruddhi Mahamarg, Atal Setu, the Coastal Road Project, and popular schemes like Ladki Bahin Yojana and Lek Ladki Yojana. We've initiated development efforts that benefit every part of society. People want to see progress, and Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has delivered just that," she said.

Election 2024: Key factors

A senior political observer, who wished not to be named, said, "The BJP's backing grants Shinde access to substantial resources and a wider electoral base. For the BJP, the alliance with Shinde's Shiv Sena is strategically crucial as it provides an anchor in Maharashtra's Marathi-speaking voter base. However, analysts note that BJP's influence could diminish Shinde's sway among traditional Sena supporters, who may view it as a dilution of Shiv Sena's original ideology."

The Uddhav Thackeray faction, though smaller, could maintain a loyal voter base drawn to Bal Thackeray's legacy. The senior journalist said, "In the heart of Mumbai and other Sena strongholds, Uddhav may still command respect. He has crafted an image as a leader with a softer, inclusive approach compared to his father. This shift might appeal to younger voters and those more progressive-minded within Sena's traditional base."

While the Shinde faction may benefit from urban areas, where development narratives are highly valued, the Uddhav faction might resonate with rural areas, where voters tend to prioritise loyalty and traditional values over alliances. This urban-rural divide will likely influence voting patterns across Maharashtra's constituencies.

"The Maharashtra assembly elections are just around the corner, and the division has created considerable uncertainty regarding the future of the Shiv Sena. Some experts believe the Shiv Sena may never regain its former unified strength," he added.

"While it is unlikely that either faction can claim the entirety of Shiv Sena's base, each holds significant pockets of influence," commented a Girgaon resident in Mumbai.

However, others argue that regardless of the outcome, the Shiv Sena brand remains resilient. As Suresh S says, "We may be divided, but both factions are Shiv Sena at heart. No matter what happens, we are still united in our commitment to Maharashtra."

The Maharashtra assembly elections 2024 will test both Shiv Sena factions, shaping the party's future for years to come. While the Uddhav faction carries the legacy, the Shinde faction boasts the advantage of a strong alliance with the BJP. Ultimately, it will be up to the voters to decide whether legacy or pragmatism holds the true power within the Shiv Sena. As the party steps into uncharted territory, one thing is certain: the Shiv Sena's influence on Maharashtra's political landscape is far from over.