Maharashtra Assembly Election: Battle for CM intensifies even before state goes to polls

State Congress chief Nana Patole, UBT chief Uddhav Thackeray, NCP-SP chief Sharad Pawar and Congress leader Balasaheb Thorat. File pic/PTI

Senior Congress leader Balasaheb Thorat's declaration that the party will have its chief minister installed triggered a sharp reaction from the Shiv Sena (UBT). The statement has come while the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) has decided to not project anyone as a CM aspirant or discuss the issue openly while seat-sharing talks are on, so that fissures, if any, are not evident ahead of the Assembly elections. The statement also came in the backdrop of Uddhav Thackeray's recent remark that he had never aspired for the top post.

Thorat spoke about the party's high confidence in installing its CM at a party workers' meeting on Thursday. He indicated that the Congress, which emerged as the single largest party in Maharashtra's Lok Sabha election results, will repeat the feat in the Assembly polls that are due this winter.

No place for regional parties?

The statement pitted the Congress, a national party, directly against another national outfit the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which, like the Congress, has demanded more share in seat-sharing, and aims to have its leader as the next CM. In a way, it appeared that the regional parties from both fronts, two factions of the Sena and Nationalist Congress Party have a limited scope in Maharashtra's electoral battleground.

‘Congress up because of Sena'

Sena (UBT) chief spokesperson, Sanjay Raut, said there was nothing like a big or little brother in the MVA which was a three-party coalition. "Still, if someone is desperate to know who is a big or small brother, then the picture in Maharashtra will become clear in the near future. But I think that the senior Congress leaders have a very clear view," he said, adding that it was time the Congress knew about the Sena's contribution to its victory at three more Lok Sabha seats.

"We gave them our winning [Lok Sabha] seats of Kolhapur, Ramtek and Amravati. Their number increased because of this. It is inappropriate for them if they want to forget about it. I again tell you that the senior leadership of the Congress will never hold a view [that state leadership does]," he said.

According to Raut, not just the Congress had its confidence boosted because of the Lok Sabha results, but it was true for other MVA partners too. "Is it that they will fight alone because their confidence level is high? We all three will have to work together to get our confidence higher," he said.

Raut said the distribution of seats for the Lok Sabha was easier than for the Assembly because there were only 48 seats. "But in the Assembly, we have 288 seats, and we have three main parties and in addition, we also have smaller allies. Our view is to accommodate all smaller parties. I think we will succeed in doing that."
Thorat said he did not say anything wrong. "Remember what I say. I said the MVA will have its CM. The Congress will have its CM (as it is part of the MVA)."

Since 1995, the undivided Sena has had three CMs - Manohar Joshi, Narayan Rane (between 1995 and 1999) and Uddhav Thackeray (2019-22).

Thackeray headed a coalition government that was made in 2019's unprecedented political situation. The rivals, the Sena and Congress-NCP had joined hands to keep the BJP at bay. Before that, the BJP had made a three-day government with undivided NCP's Ajit Pawar.

Power struggle in NDA

Eknath Shinde, who was a cabinet minister in the Thackeray cabinet split the Sena in 2022 to become a CM of the BJP majority regime. BJP's hot contender for the top job and ex-CM Devendra Fadnavis was made Shinde's deputy. A year later, Ajit Pawar broke the NCP to become a DyCM in the Shinde government. The tripartite arrangement has led to a power struggle, with all constituents demanding more seats to contest so that they win more to stake claim to the CM's post.

The BJP is unwilling to settle for anything less than the number of seats it fought in 2019 (160 plus out of 288). Shinde Sena and NCP have not yet agreed to share the rest between them. It is said that the final formula could be achieved when the union minister Amit Shah visits Maharashtra next week.

Third front

As the fight is clearly between the two major alliances where space is very tight, some smaller parties have decided to form a third front. Swabhimani Shetkari (farmers) Sanghatana's former MP Raju Shetti, Prahar chief and former minister Bacchu Kadu, and former Rajya Sabha member Sambhajiraje Chhatrapati have come together to form a third front for the assembly elections. In addition, Prakash Ambedkar's Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi will fight solo, and its one-time partner AIMIM too has taken an independent route.

Going by Raj Thackeray's statements and pre-poll campaign tours, his Maharashtra Navnirman Sena will also contest the elections on its own. He plans to field candidates in over 200 seats. His son Amit, who heads the party's youth wing is being tipped as a potential contestant from Mumbai's Bhandup constituency.

However, BJP's long-time ally Ramdas Athawale (Republican Party of India) is not convinced about MNS's stand-alone posturing. Fearing that Raj could be inducted into NDA (Mahayuti), he has said that the addition of MNS would deny him his share. He said he has asked for 10 to 12 seats from the BJP which itself wants at least 155 to 160 seats to contest to win the numbers that will install its CM.

The Jarange factor

A long-standing agitation for the Maratha reservation has emerged as a new political force. Maratha activist Manoj Jarange Patil, who has sat on hunger strike on multiple occasions, had given a call to beat Mahayuti candidates in Lok Sabha, but it turned out that the agitation's real target was the BJP. The dent the Marathas caused led to the BJP's fall in certain Maratha-dominated seats.

Ahead of the Assembly elections, Jarange has intensified his stir and prepared his candidates to be fielded. He has interviewed prospective Maratha candidates, and he is expected to get more as the established parties start declaring their
respective candidates.

288
No. of Assembly seats in Maharashtra