Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Will BJP be able to wipe out Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena?

As the Lok Sabha elections 2024 approach, political analysts and enthusiasts are keenly observing the dynamics between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT). The relationship between these two parties, once allies, has evolved into a rivalry that could significantly impact the political landscape of Maharashtra and beyond.

Historical context

The Shiv Sena, founded by Bal Thackeray in 1966, has been a formidable force in Maharashtra politics, advocating for the rights of the Marathi people. The party entered into a long-standing alliance with the BJP in the 1990s, which proved beneficial for both parties in state and national elections. However, this alliance fractured in 2019 following the Maharashtra Assembly elections. Disagreements over the chief ministerial post led Uddhav Thackeray to form an alliance with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Indian National Congress (INC), creating the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government.

Emergence of the Shiv Sena (UBT)

In 2022, a faction within the Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde broke away, leading to a political crisis in Maharashtra. Shinde, supported by the BJP, formed a new government, effectively splitting the Shiv Sena. Uddhav Thackeray's faction, known as Shiv Sena (UBT), has since been striving to retain its political relevance and voter base amid these challenges.

Also Read: Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Shiv Sena and NCP face litmus test of survival

BJP's strategy

A senior journalist (who wished not to be named) said that the BJP's primary objective in Maharashtra is to consolidate its position and emerge as the dominant force. To achieve this, the party has adopted a multi-pronged strategy.

"By backing Eknath Shinde's faction, the BJP has managed to weaken Uddhav Thackeray's hold on the Shiv Sena. This move aims to split the traditional Shiv Sena vote bank and redirect support towards the BJP and its allies. The BJP is relying on the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the central leadership to galvanise support across Maharashtra. The focus is on showcasing the achievements of the Modi government and promising further development and stability," he said.

He further said that the BJP has intensified its efforts to connect with voters at the grassroots level through various outreach programs and initiatives. "This includes addressing local issues, promoting welfare schemes, and emphasising the party's commitment to development," the senior journalist said.

Challenges for Uddhav Thackeray

Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray faces several challenges as he gears up for the Lok Sabha elections 2024.

"The split within the Shiv Sena has created confusion among voters and weakened the party's organisational structure. Rebuilding the party and regaining the trust of the electorate is a significant hurdle. While the Shiv Sena (UBT) continues to be a part of the MVA, the coalition's effectiveness in countering the BJP's influence remains uncertain. Coordination and mutual support among the MVA partners will be crucial for Uddhav Thackeray," the senior journalist said.

He said that Thackeray needs to reinforce his image as a strong and capable leader who can navigate the complex political landscape. "Effective communication and a clear vision for Maharashtra are essential for convincing voters of his capability to lead," he added.

Traditional Shiv Sena voters

Political analyst Abhay Deshpande said that the BJP will not be able to eliminate the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT).

"I doubt the BJP will be able to completely wipe out the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT). Whether it's the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT), the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, or the BJP, none of them are going to be wiped out from Maharashtra. Undoubtedly, there will be a significant shift in the election results compared to 2019. However, the extent of this shift remains uncertain. Therefore, this final phase of the election will be pivotal. It's crucial for them to improve their tally and mitigate the damage that has occurred in Maharashtra," he said.

Discussing the division of traditional Shiv Sena voters between the factions led by Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde, Deshpande remarked, "This division might not significantly impact Mumbai, as any decrease in Uddhav Thackeray's votes could be balanced out by new votes due to his alliance with the Congress, enabling them to stand against the BJP. Hence, the new voters may compensate for any loss Thackeray experiences. Moreover, Thackeray's shift from Hindutva to secularism may attract new votes while potentially losing some traditional ones. Therefore, the overall impact might not be as substantial as anticipated, and the damage to Uddhav Thackeray might not be as severe."

Deshpande observed that Uddhav Thackeray's shift from Hindutva to secularism might impact his support among traditional Marathi voters. "Certainly, he will lose some portion of Marathi voters, but he may gain new support from secular voters. However, the crucial question remains whether traditional Shiv Sena supporters will align with the Congress. While traditional Congress voters are likely to support the Uddhav Thackeray-led faction due to his anti-Modi stance, it remains uncertain if traditional Shiv Sena voters will do the same. This aspect will unfold during the upcoming elections."

The road ahead

The upcoming Lok Sabha elections 2024 will be a litmus test for both the BJP and the Shiv Sena (UBT). Several factors will influence the outcome:

Performance of the State Government: The governance record of the current BJP-backed government in Maharashtra, led by Eknath Shinde, will be under scrutiny. Voters' perception of the state government's effectiveness in addressing issues like infrastructure, employment, and public services could sway the electorate.

National vs Regional Appeal: While the BJP will likely emphasise national issues and the leadership of Narendra Modi, the Shiv Sena (UBT) may focus on regional identity, local issues, and the legacy of Bal Thackeray. Striking the right balance between these narratives will be crucial.

Coalition Dynamics: The ability of the MVA to present a united front and effectively mobilise their combined voter base will be vital. Any signs of discord or lack of coordination could be detrimental to their prospects.

Campaign Strategies: Effective campaigning, use of social media, and ground-level mobilisation will play a significant role. Both parties will need to connect with the electorate, address their concerns, and present compelling reasons for their support.

Conclusion

The BJP's ambition to dominate Maharashtra's political landscape by sidelining the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena is evident. However, the Shiv Sena (UBT) is not without its strengths and historical legacy. The Lok Sabha elections 2024 will be a significant battleground, with the potential to reshape political alliances and influence future electoral outcomes in the state.

Ultimately, the ability of each party to effectively communicate its vision, address voter concerns, and mobilise support will determine the extent to which the BJP can succeed in its objective and whether the Shiv Sena (UBT) can maintain its relevance and influence in Maharashtra's political arena.