Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Understanding Sena (UBT)'s power play & its impact on Maharashtra's political landscape

The electoral arena across India is heating up as the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 are days away from commencing. The upcoming polls, as it is evident, is going to be between two major alliances--the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the BJP and the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance aka INDIA bloc.

This polarisation is equally visible in the electoral landscape of Maharashtra as Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi prepare to take on each other. Additionally, other parties like Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena and Prakash Ambedkar's Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, are also hitting the headlines as the election fervour continues to rise.

Maha Vikas Aghadi, which once boasted of powerful leaders, are now formed with fractured political parties after the two vertical splits the state witnessed in 2022 and 2023. Part of the MVA constituent is Shiv Sena (UBT), Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar) and Congress.

With the leaders airing their grievances in the media amidst seat-sharing talks ahead of Lok Sabha Elections 2024, the fissures between the coalition of once ideological foes surfaced. However, what nearly drove a wedge, as per reports, was Shiv Sena (UBT)'s March 27 announcement of 17 candidates. They had announced candidates for seats like Sangli, and those in Mumbai which, as some Congress leaders claimed, were under discussion. Many from Congress had termed the Sena (UBT)'s decision as being a "unilateral" one and jabs were certainly traded.

When asked about the ramifications of this move by Shiv Sena (UBT) ahead of the Lok Sabha Elections 2024, political analyst Abhay Deshpande, says that in an alliance, need takes a crucial place. Elaborating further he said, "In an alliance, need presides over power and in today's date, Congress needs people more. The grand old party has more stake in Lok Sabha which is why they had to compromise at multiple places including in Maharashtra."

Deshpande pointed out that although the Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP) are fractions, Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar in cohort have taken strategically shared seats that were once contested by undivided Shiv Sena and BJP and then also took seats like Sangli and Mumbai.

"The Congress does not have the confidence to either break from the alliance and contest Lok Sabha Elections 2024 by themselves; they can only create hue and cry. Shiv Sena (UBT) is aware of this fact and thus took an aggressive position and it benefitted them," the political analyst said.

The pan-Maharashtra appeal that Uddhav Thackeray or Sharad Pawar yield, Nana Patole or Balasaheb Thorat do not have the same. Since Ashok Chavan's departure, there's not been a leader that appeals to the public like Thackeray or Pawar do. Playing up on these factors including quiet support by Sharad Pawar, Sena UBT could not take a firm stand and benefit from it, he said.

Speaking about the long-term ramifications of Sena (UBT)'s methodology, Deshpande said that its ramifications will be seen in the subsequent state assembly election.

He said, "Sena (UBT) have 15 MLAs but are contesting around 22 seats. Lok Sabha Elections 2024 are crucial and with its firm strategy of aggressive campaigning, contesting from more seats, statewide leadership, Sena (UBT) has an edge," he said adding that the party will likely be staking claim over more constituencies even during the state assembly elections.

"In the upcoming state assembly elections, Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar will be dominating the space. Uddhav Thackeray is filling the vacuum of opposition; he is taking maximum space in opposition and so is Sharad Pawar," he said.

Responding to a query about the opportunities and challenges for Sena (UBT) given the aggressive stance they have been taking, Deshpande elucidated that Shiv Sena after 2014 had realised that the Hindutva politics space has been completely occupied by the Bharatiya Janata Party and it slowly shifted to the other side which on the spectrum could be a right-centre or off-left centre.

"Shiv Sena (then undivided and today's UBT faction) has aligned itself with an anti-BJP stance and former Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray has become the face of anti-BJP politics in Maharashtra. Thackeray is leading the anti-BJP forces in the state presently and he also is leading the Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance. This has provided them with ample space to flip the narrative," he pointed out.

Deshpande said that Sena had come a long way from what Balasaheb's party was. At first, it was a hardcore Hindutva party. He said it began with Sena being a regional party which tapped into sentiments of ‘Marathi Manoos', later moved on to become a Hindutva party before Uddhav was given the reigns.

"Thackeray shifted the party's base into secular, anti-BJP space which was an opportunity and they have occupied maximum space. Also, the Sena (UBT) has also kept the BJP door open; they may even come together later," he remarked.

When asked whether the recent happenings have any effect on voter sentiments, Abhay remarked that it will not affect public sentiment majorly.

Regional sentiments were focused upon in Shiv Sena (UBT) and the party, he said and added that the party is still harping on the sentiment however instead of using Marathi words, they are targetting the incumbent saying it is working for Gujarat rather than Maharashtra. They just don't use the word Marathi anymore.

He added that although the party may have lost the hardcore Hindutva voters, it has gained a new voter base by shifting towards a rather secular ideology. He remarked that those who once kept away from the party are now coming in support of Sena (UBT).

Politico Speak

When asked about the ‘unilateral decision' allegation by the MVA partner after the announcement of candidates, Sena (UBT) leader Priyanka Chaturvedi said that the candidates were declared after deliberations and were not a "unilateral" decision.

"How can it be unilateral when the decision was made after discussions," she questioned then said that they were being told not to contest in western Maharashtra. "How can we not contest from there? And the candidate who is cribbing has lost from Mumbai north constituency," Chaturvedi said.

She further stated that every party, while working within an alliance, will also look towards safeguarding its interests as well as the larger goals of the alliance.

Responding to a query about how Sena (UBT) perceives its role in shaping the political narrative and dynamics in Maharashtra, she said that former CM Uddhav Thackeray and the party envision making India one of the largest economies and that Maharashtra should be the biggest contributor to it.

She said the party has an ideal of governing without appeasement, bringing progressive policies that the state of Maharashtra deserves and has done so during the tenure of the Maha Vikas Aghadi government led by Thackeray.

"Politically, we are clear the Constitution was undermined and so were democratic values. The Hon'ble Supreme Court agreed with us and had stated in their ruling that they would have constituted Uddhav Thackeray as CM had he not resigned," she said.

The Sena leader added that Thackeray had taken a moral high ground and resigned.

"From taking oath as a CM and later resigning the credibility of Uddhav Thackeray has increased. Politically, he is popular and has been single-handedly fighting forces that are working against Maharashtra and built hateful narratives," Chaturvedi said and added that despite investigating agencies going after their leaders, the party is continuing to fight. She said the party will leverage it for electoral gains.

Our stance is that we were cheated, thrown out of power to a point the Election Commission of India went against set norms, she added.

When asked about how Sena (UBT) aims to address the concerns and aspirations of various sections of society given the diverse socio-political landscape of Maharashtra, she said that Prabhodhankar Thackeray first called for citizens of Maharashtra unite as Maharashtrians and Balasaheb took it forward. She further added Uddhav too believes in social justice and reforms and that if elected, their government will for parity and inclusiveness "as opposed to how caste or religious identities were polarised in the state.

Identities start playing a larger role when you have limited employment opportunities and it works against the state. We will pull those left behind at par with the relatively accomplished if we are elected, she noted and said Maharashtra needs a healing touch.