Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Shiv Sena and NCP face litmus test of survival

In the pulsating landscape of Indian politics, every election cycle brings its own set of challenges and opportunities. As the nation gears up for the Lok Sabha elections 2024, all eyes are particularly fixed on the fate of regional heavyweights like the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). These parties, once pillars of Maharashtra's political arena, now find themselves at a critical juncture, facing a litmus test that could determine their survival in the ever-evolving political landscape of the country.

As the campaign for the Lok Sabha elections 2024 gathers momentum, Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray, the leaders of two prominent regional parties in Maharashtra, are fighting a battle for political survival.

The litmus test

The polls are also a litmus test for Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and his deputy and NCP chief Ajit Pawar as they have cast their lots with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) by splitting their respective parties.

But the challenge is tougher for Thackeray and Sharad Pawar as they are out of power and have lost control of their parties -- Shiv Sena and NCP, respectively -- along with the original name and electoral symbol.

A split in the Shiv Sena, where Uddhav Thackeray's leadership was challenged by his once trusted aide Eknath Shinde, and the division in the NCP, where the writ of founder Sharad Pawar was defied by his nephew Ajit Pawar, has created a unique situation.

Also Read: Analysing Modi's rule: A closer look at his leadership style and governance

The Election Commission and the Maharashtra assembly speaker have recognised the Ajit Pawar-led NCP and Shinde-led Sena as the real NCP and the real Shiv Sena.

The factions

Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena is referred to as the ‘Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray),' while the rival faction led by Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde is simply known as Shiv Sena. The Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena's election symbol is the Bow and Arrow, whereas Shiv Sena (UBT) led by Uddhav Thackeray uses a flaming torch as its symbol.

Following the splits, the faction led by Ajit Pawar is now recognised as the Nationalist Congress Party, retaining the original party name and symbol. Founder and president Sharad Pawar formed the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar) after the Election Commission recognised the Ajit Pawar faction as the original party. The Sharad Pawar faction will contest both Lok Sabha and State Legislative Assembly polls under the party symbol of the 'trumpet.'

What experts have to say?

While the political landscape of India gears up for the Lok Sabha elections in 2024, Maharashtra stands at the forefront with its unique blend of regional power dynamics and national significance. As the campaign for the Lok Sabha elections gathers momentum, Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray, the leaders of two prominent regional parties in Maharashtra, are fighting a battle for political survival.

Both the leaders need to put up an impressive performance in the polls, or else they risk political extinction.

A senior journalist, who wished not to be named, said, "The political landscape in Maharashtra witnesses a tumultuous chapter, with the Shiv Sena and the NCP grappling with internal rifts that threaten to undermine their electoral prospects. Once stalwarts of the state's political arena, these parties now find themselves locked in a battle for survival, struggling to navigate the fallout from recent splits within their ranks."

"The Shiv Sena, a party synonymous with Maharashtra's political identity, has been rocked by internal dissent following its decision to break away from its long-standing ally, the BJP, and form a coalition government with the Congress and the NCP. While this realignment marked a watershed moment in the state's political history, it also exposed deep-seated divisions within the Shiv Sena's leadership and rank-and-file," he said.

The senior journalist said that the rift within the Shiv Sena came to the fore with the emergence of factions aligned with different ideological and strategic visions for the party's future. "The decision by prominent leaders to either toe the party line or break away to pursue independent political agendas has further exacerbated tensions within the organisation. This internal turmoil threatens to weaken the Shiv Sena's electoral machinery and erode its support base, raising questions about the party's ability to retain its dominance in Maharashtra's political landscape," he added.

He further said that similarly, the NCP, founded by the seasoned politician Sharad Pawar, finds itself grappling with fissures within its ranks ahead of the Lok Sabha elections 2024. "While the party has long been hailed for its ability to navigate the complexities of coalition politics, recent defections and internal discord have cast a shadow over its electoral prospects. The emergence of dissident factions within the NCP, fueled by divergent ambitions and grievances, poses a formidable challenge to the party's unity and cohesion," he added.

Political analyst Abhay Deshpande noted that the upcoming elections pose a survival test for all four factions: the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT), the Sharad Pawar-led NCP (SP), the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP. However, Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar may hold the upper hand due to potential sympathy votes.

"Of course, it is a survival test for all four factions: the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT), the Sharad Pawar-led NCP (SP), the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP. It will also test the claims of Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray regarding the loyalty of their traditional voters and party cadres. Everything is at stake for Uddhav Thackeray; he must endeavour to secure support from his party's traditional base. Meanwhile, Sharad Pawar will likely advocate for Supriya Sule as his party's successor. However, both leaders may hold an advantage in this election due to potential sympathy votes. Even for Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar, this election represents a critical survival test. With the state elections looming by year's end, the outcome is crucial for all four parties," Deshpande said.

One of the critical factors that will shape the electoral battle between the both the Shiv Senas and the NCPs is their ability to address the underlying causes of internal dissent and present a united front to the electorate.

Moreover, the alliances and coalition dynamics in Maharashtra will play a decisive role in shaping the outcome of the elections.

In conclusion, the Lok Sabha elections 2024 present a formidable challenge for the Shiv Sena and the NCP, two political heavyweights grappling with internal fractures and external pressures. As they strive to overcome the divisions within their ranks, these parties must also confront the larger task of winning the trust and confidence of the electorate. Whether they emerge victorious and reaffirm their relevance in Maharashtra's political landscape or face electoral setbacks that alter the course of the state's politics remains to be seen. Nonetheless, one thing is clear: the battle for survival has never been more intense for these political titans.