Lok Sabha elections 2024: Opinion polls predict a big zero for Ajit Pawar

Maharashtra-specific opinion polls have a shocking revelation for Ajit Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). ABP-C Voter and TV-9, Polstrat, People's Insight opinion polls say that Ajit Pawar's NCP will not be able to open its account. It should be a cause of concern for Ajit who had left his uncle Sharad Pawar to be part of the Shinde-Fadnavis government last year.

Subsequently, the nephew managed to claim NCP's ownership, the party's original name and election symbol. But surveys indicate that sympathy for Sharad Pawar will work as NCP (SP) is shown winning five seats (one more than 2019), mostly in western Maharashtra, where the BJP had made inroads.

In opinion polls, Ajit Pawar is seen as a weakling of the BJP-led NDA. Post break-up, Shiv Sena (Shinde) and Shiv Sena (UBT) have been shown sharing the spoils in the ABP-C Voter poll, with 9-10 seats each. TV9 poll has given Shinde only 3 seats and Thackeray 10 seats. Both polls have given BJP 21-25 seats. Another undivided party, the Congress seems to be the weaker link in the MVA because it is expected to get 3 to 5 seats as per both opinion polls. The Congress does not appear to be returning with expected numbers in Vidarbha where it has high hopes. Voting for five seats in Vidarbha will be held on April 19 and a week later for the remaining five.

Seat-wise data comes up with interesting pointers that should be seen impacting the outcome on June 4. Wherever they are up against each other, Thackeray Sena has advantage over Shinde. Ajit Pawar's NCP doesn't seem to be gaining against Sharad Pawar's candidates. Congress is expected to put up a good fight against BJP in direct fights, but lose almost all battles. Of the six major parties that have formed two alliances for contesting 48 seats, only BJP seems to be securing its individual position. In alliance in 2019, the BJP and undivided Sena had won 23 and 18 seats, respectively. The NCP had won 4 and the Congress just 1. AIMIM and independent had won 1 each. Alliance-wise gain could be more for NDA, but not like 2019's massive mandate of 41 seats, say the opinion polls. Nationally, ABP-C Voter has predicted that the BJP/NDA will fall short of 400 seats and foresaw a big defeat for the Congress.

In Maharashtra, looking for a new partner, the BJP had befriended Ajit Pawar to compensate for the deficiency it must have seen cropping up in Eknath Shinde's Sena, but the opinion polls say otherwise. With tripartite pacts coming up on both sides, efforts have been made to make it a bipolar fight between two alliances. But it doesn't seem to be going the expected way. Previously, it was a confusion-free atmosphere for the voters in Maharashtra. The emergence of new formations have given rise to new complications on both sides. Like the voters, the parties in the Lok Sabha contests did not have an opportunity to participate in the election after the 2019 Assembly elections. The opinion poll should give political stakeholders some idea of what is going on the ground.

Dharmendra Jore is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @dharmendrajore
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