Lok Sabha Election Results 2024: Experts analyse why MVA surged in Maharashtra as BJP faltered

The electrifying electoral battle culminated on June 4 with Lok Sabha Election Results 2024 which defied the exit poll predictions and sent waves of shock across the nation. While the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) failed to achieve its target of getting 400 seats, the opposition's INDIA bloc managed to grab more seats than anticipated.

A similar scenario emerged from Maharashtra where the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which many did not believe could survive the polls, managed to bag 30 seats while the ruling Mahayuti won only 17 seats.

The Lok Sabha Election Results 2024 in Maharashtra has boosted the morale of MVA comprising Shiv Sena (UBT), Congress and Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar). While Mahayuti - comprising of BJP, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction) and Nationalist Congress Party (Ajit Pawar faction) - is mulling over the lapses in their poll campaigning.

Breakdown of Lok Sabha Election Results 2024 in Maharashtra

The BJP suffered a significant blow in the Maharashtra Lok Sabha elections, losing more than half of its seats in 2019. In contrast, the opposition MVA, which included the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (Sharad Pawar), fared well, capturing 30 out of 48 seats.

The BJP-led NDA fell far short of its target of gaining more than 45 seats in Maharashtra, winning only 17. The BJP won only nine seats in the state, compared to 23 in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Its ally, the Shiv Sena, got seven seats, while the Ajit Pawar-led NCP received one.

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The Congress achieved huge gains, obtaining 13 seats, up from only one in 2019. Shiv Sena (UBT) and the NCP (Sharad Pawar) both won nine seats. Vishal Patil, a former Congressman who campaigned alone, won the Sangli seat. He has stated that he will obey whatever decision the Congress makes regarding his rejoining the party. If he rejoins, the MVA's total seat count in the state will increase to 32.

Factors influencing Maharashtra Lok Sabha Election Results 2024

mid-day.com spoke to political analysts and strategists to understand the factors that led to the Lok Sabha Election Results 2024 and how much the respective alliances had on the public and how their future looks with impending state assembly polls.

The experts suggested that the Lok Sabha Election Results 2024 was certainly influenced by factors like Maratha quota agitation, the onion export ban, farmers' stir, polarisation of voters etc.

When asked about his first reaction to the Lok Sabha Election Results 2024, political analyst Abhay Deshpande said that it was not unexpected. However, the unexpected factor, he added, was Congress winning more seats than Shiv Sena (UBT).

"The Lok Sabha Election Results 2024 were not that unexpected. The simmering anger among the public over Maratha quota agitation, the use of brute force against protestors, anger over the feeling that if BJP wins 400 seats, they would change the Constitution, the Citizenship Amendment Act's implementation etc influenced the outcome in Maharashtra," said analyst Deshpande.

He added that the Mahayuti lost out on Nashik over the onion export ban while the coalition lost the Aurangabad seat due to the presence of a strong candidate from All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen candidate which prevented the polarisation of votes.

Meanwhile, political strategist Ritwik Mehta stated that the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi had tried to present a strong third dimension to the electoral battle but could not which led to polarisation of votes of Dalit and Muslim communities towards Maha Vikas Aghadi since they were anti-establishment/ anti-BJP. He also stated that the Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP cadre did not support BJP leaders as much as BJP cadre supported them.

"The farmers' unrest, and unemployment issues did affect the Lok Sabha Election Results 2024 in Maharashtra including in Mumbai. Secondly, the BJP put their all in campaigning for candidates of Shinde Sena and NCP, but they did not extend the same helping hand and the vote transfer did not come through from the two factions. This caused BJP to lose out on numbers," Mehta added.

Lok Sabha Election Results 2024: ‘Delay in seat-sharing cost Mahayuti'

Both Deshpande and Mehta, however, echoed that the Mahayuti's late announcement of candidates as opposed to that of Maha Vikas Aghadi also cost them the elections.

"Seeing as Shiv Sena (UBT) had approached seat-sharing, the public thought that the MVA will be struggling. However, by the time, Mahayuti finalised seat-sharing and announced candidates, MVA had completed two rounds of campaigning. BJP had thought they had a good strike rate and thus fought over number of seats. Shinde Sena had to fight for his bastion - Thane - till days before filing of nomination," said Deshpande.

Mehta, adding to that, said, "Mahayuti did take a lot of time for seat-sharing. For instance, in Mumbai North Central, they announced Ujjwal Nikam's candidature quite hastily. It was expected that the party would field someone experienced like Ashish Shelar."

How did campaigns of two alliances influence Lok Sabha Election Results 2024

When asked about how the campaigning of the two alliances affected the results, Mehta said that it was surprising that despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi, outgoing Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath holding rallies in Maharashtra, they could not sway voters.

"If PM Modi campaigned at one place, no other star campaigner including Amit Shah would go there and hold rallies. However, they broke away from this. CM Yogi & Shah held rallies in places where PM Modi had held 18 rallies yet they could not sway voters. Furthermore, had they (Mahayuti partners) been more involved in campaigning for BJP candidates with fervour, they could have turned the tide," said Mehta, founder of think tank Niti Tantra.

He said in contrast to Mahayuti's grandeur rallies, the MVA kept it low-key. "The public did not see Rahul or Priyanka Gandhi or Mallikarjun Kharge coming and rallying for any candidate of MVA. They had mostly fielded local leaders and other local leaders had campaigned for them thus paving the way for the public to resonate with them. Moreover, their co-ordination was good in contrast to that of Mahayuti," Mehta added.

Meanwhile, Deshpande said that the Mahayuti had realised that Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar to an extent still had people's sympathy over the split in the party and its name and symbol being awarded to the other factions thus additional meetings were held with PM Modi.

"Additionally, in previous elections, the Opposition played on the pitch prepared by the BJP. This time, the INDIA bloc, led by Congress, announced their 5 Nyay (Justice) scheme and set their narrative. They used the notion that ‘400 paar' (for BJP) would endanger the Constitution to their benefit. Meanwhile, BJP moved towards communal polarisation by vilifying Muslims and saying they are after your mangalsutras etc," said Deshpande.

The political analyst added that generally, during elections, a phenomenon of reverse polarisation is observed among voters and that it did not happen during Lok Sabha Elections 2024 thus benefitting MVA.

He also pointed out that the MVA relatively had gelled well despite the public perception, unlike Mahayuti. "MVA was formed in 2019, they had ample time to sort differences. So, their win was a combination of mathematics and chemistry," responded Deshpande.

Lok Sabha Election Results 2024: Impact of voters' behaviour on outcome

Ritwik Mehta said that the voters in Maharashtra have been simmering over the split in parties and politicians changing allegiances. People in rural areas too, through social media, are keeping up with the current happenings, he said.

Elaborating further, he said, "Even core BJP voters observe that Maharashtra politics had never stooped so low. This resulted in many not going out and voting. He also said that there are many swing voters, who may harbour a soft spot for one political party, but will vote based on their local leader's allegiances."

Lok Sabha Election Results 2024: What lies ahead of Mahayuti, MVA

When asked about both the alliance's futures ahead of impending state assembly elections, Deshpande said that the BJP will have to compromise a lot given their performance in Lok Sabha elections. He also added that since morale is high in MVA, things for now seem relatively easier.

"For MVA, between the three partners, talks on seat-sharing will have to be broached in a calm manner. Congress, during Lok Sabha elections, did not retaliate much since it had a lot on stake since they wanted to preserve INDIA bloc too. With state assembly elections, the focus will be on local issues and since they have the most number of seats at the moment, they can take an assertive stance," said Deshpande.

While he predicted equal sharing in the MVA, conversely, the BJP will have to prove their mettle amid the anti-BJP atmosphere in the state and its poor performance in the polls.

"Among the Mahayuti partners, Shinde-led Sena had the best strike rate. Meanwhile, Ajit Pawar faction's involvement hinges on how many sitting MLAs do not go back to Sharad Pawar and the pending Supreme Court judgement in NCP vs NCP case. BJP, given their performance, will have to compromise a lot," he added.