Covid-19: The long, fat tail of second wave in Mumbai Metropolitan Region

People wait in a queue for antigen tests at LTT on Monday. Pic/Sayyed Sameer Abedi

After peaking and then falling sharply within a month, daily Covid-19 cases in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) have steadied at 3,700 to 3,800. During the first wave too, the reduction in cases happened over a long period of time.

The peak in the second wave came very early as compared to the first wave and the cases came down within a month. The region has been reporting a steady number of cases since last week. The fat, long tail of the pandemic was seen in the previous wave too.

A beneficiary receives a dose of Covishield at Swaminarayan temple, Mahalaxmi, on Monday. Pic/Ashish Raje

Caes started rising in Mumbai and MMR in mid-February. Within a month, they had tripled. The sharpest hike was seen from March 15 onwards and Mumbai's cases touched the peak of 11,206 on April 4. The growth was six-fold. Then cases started reducing sharply.

The rest of MMR reached its peak two weeks after Mumbai, because of which its cases seemed stable at the time. On April 22, the region peaked with 9828 cases. Within the next three weeks, cases reduced to one-fourth of the peak number. Since last week, they have been steady. On May 18, MMR recorded 2,559 cases including 961 from Mumbai. In the past five days, cases were around 3700 to 3800.

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"The tail may remain fat and long just like the first wave. The density is high in the Mumbai region, so cases continue appearing. But we cannot say that this will be the case after another peak or it is a characteristic of this pandemic," said Dr. Rahul Pandit, member of the state Covid-19 task force.

During the first wave, the peak had also been pushed by the lockdown for several months. When cities opened up in August-September, cases started increasing and the peak occurred on October 7 when daily cases reached 2,848 in Mumbai. After that, cases fell sharply and reduced to half within a month. In the last week of November, the daily cases were around 500 to 600, but even after two months, the daily cases in the first week of February were around 400, after which the second wave picked up.

Private hospitals give 40 per cent of total shots
In a sign of the role to be played by private hospitals in coming months, of the 25,211 doses administered in the city on Monday, these facilities delivered 10,337 jabs, grabbing a 40 per cent share. A bulk of these vaccine-seekers - 9,078 - were from the 18-44 category. Initially, the share of private centres was about 10 per cent.

Of the total doses given by private centres, 897 were between 45 and 59 years, 347 were above 60 years, 15 were healthcare workers and the rest were from the younger lot.

On Monday, the BMC also allowed the 60-plus group to walk in. During the day, 8,717 senior citizens got the shots at civic and government hospitals. The civic body has allowed walk-in facilities for the 45-plus age group at selected centres on Tuesday.

Of Monday's total doses, 3,213 were Covaxin, said the civic corporation.