BMC polls: How many seats will MNS win?

MNS chief Raj Thackeray at a press conference in Mumbai. File pic

Ahead of the crucial BMC polls, the Raj Thackeray-led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena has commissioned a survey by an independent agency to feel the pulse of voters and identify wards that are favourable for the party to contest in. MNS insiders said a Pune-based firm has been hired for the job. A senior MNS functionary said the agency will be studying nearly 100 wards.

Since the independent agency is involved, the reports won't have any bias. The outcome of the survey will help in identifying areas or wards where the party stands a better chance to win," said the leader. Another mid-rank leader from the party appreciated the move initiated by the leadership. "Besides the party, even candidates will come to know the pulse of the voters through this pre-election survey," he said.

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MNS was launched on March 9, 2006, after Raj Thackeray broke up with his uncle, the then Shiv Sena chief Bal Thackeray. The estranged cousin of Uddhav bagged 28 BMC seats in 2007. The stunning performance of the party and "Karishma" of Raj Thackeray helped MNS win 13 of the 143 assembly seats it contested in 2009. In Mumbai alone, MNS won six MLA seats.

But, later the party started witnessing a downslide. The weakening of the party was to such an extent that the MNS won just 1 seat in the 2014 state elections. In the 2017 BMC polls, the party's wins dropped to 7 from the 28 seats it had bagged during its debut BMC elections.

Several biggies like Pravin Darekar and Ram Kadam, both now with the BJP, left the MNS. Of the seven corporators elected in 2017, six defected to the Shiv Sena. Sources said MNS is in no mood to take any chance this time. Before deciding on the candidates, Raj has appointed a private agency to do the "recce" and find what is in store for the MNS ahead of the civic polls.

An aspiring MNS candidate said the move will give a level-playing field to all those who want to contest the party ticket but have little or no access to its leadership. "Many times, the local leadership recommends candidates to party higher-ups. At times, there are biased recommendations which ruin the chances of genuine party workers. Now, this will be eliminated completely or to a larger extent," a local MNS worker said.

A leader close to Raj said the exercise will help the party focus on winning seats rather than putting MNS's strength and energy behind all wards and candidates. "Rajsaheb and Gen.Next leadership - Amit Thackeray - along with other senior party leaders can design their election rallies, roadshows and other corner meetings on seats where survey exhibits that MNS stands higher chances of winning or giving a tough fight," said the close confidant of the MNS chief.