A high-stakes year ahead for state politics

CM Eknath Shinde and Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis at an event at Shivaji Park, Dadar, during Diwali. Pic/Rane Ashish

The new year is expected to be decisive for the ruling and the opposition parties that are preparing for a big test - the civic polls, to be followed by the General elections and Assembly polls in 2024. Maharashtra will determine the BJP's strength in the next Lok Sabha that will help realise its plan to return to power for the third time in succession. If decided this year, the court cases will decide the fate of the Eknath Shinde-Devendra Fadnavis government as well.

What's at stake

The very purpose of toppling the Maha Vikas Aghadi was to be in power in the state to enhance the BJP's prospects of winning as many seats as possible from Maharashtra, which sends 48 Members of Parliament, the second biggest number after Uttar Pradesh. The Shiv Sena's breakaway group led by Eknath Shinde will be BJP's new partner in its pursuit.

However, before the redefined saffron combine goes to the Lok Sabha elections, it will have to pass the scrutiny of the voters in the civic polls and win some legal battles that, if decided in 2023, are expected to impact state politics. The courts are yet to decide a case of civic ward delimitation and political reservations. The clearance will lead to the polls and will benefit the government if decided in its favour.

Also read: Games galore before next year's decider

Most importantly, the Shinde group MLAs' disqualification row and the fight between the Sena factions for a status of the parent party and owning the election symbol will be the most watched legal events in 2023. Political sources said if Shinde Group MLAs were disqualified, the equation at Mantralaya was bound to change. There could be early Assembly elections as well, they said. In normal course, the term of the house will end in the winter of 2024, six months after the Lok Sabha polls.

Amid speculations, both ruling parties and the opposition have shifted into top gear. The government has come up with a series of announcements to woo the voters and many more promises will be made this year. PM Narendra Modi's recent event in Nagpur indicated that he would be visiting the state in future to lay the foundations of new projects and inaugurate the finished ones. The BJP's public outreach has been intensified keeping in view the forthcoming elections and a resolve to give the state yet another double-engine sarkar.

Challenges ahead

On the other side, the Maha Vikas Aghadi has accelerated the efforts to be together till the next big elections. They have tasted the fruit of unity between November 2019 and June 2022, but not without developing differences. Power corridors had felt that one of the MVA constituents would opt out of the government, but contrary to predictions, the Shiv Sena split and its two-third Assembly members sat in government with the previous ally. This year will be running tests on the unity of the opposite sides - the MVA and BJP-Shinde Sena alliance.

While the established parties fight demons within and outside it, the new kid on the block, Balasahebanchi Sena will also have a bigger challenge at hand. CM Eknath Shinde's concern is to keep his flock of 40 MLAs happy and together in any eventuality. Those who missed a place in the council of ministers are anxious to get in Team Shinde. The ruling parties have not agreed upon the formula for expanding the Cabinet, apparently because the Shinde group wants more seats to accommodate more MLAs. The BJP wants the sharing of cabinet berths on the basis of the number of MLAs the respective ruling partners have. The independent MLAs who have supported Shinde will not cease raising new demands.

It will be a defining year for Shinde who has risen to the top. It will be interesting to see whether he emerges as a leader having pan Maharashtra influence. His direct competition is Devendra Fadnavis, his deputy and ally, and Uddhav Thackeray, who leads the parallel Shiv Sena. For Fadnavis, 2023 brings him yet again a main strategic role. He had led the party's ultimate campaign of giving the unified Sena a run for its money in the 2017 BMC polls and winning a majority in the Assembly in alliance with the Shiv Sena. But he lost out to the MVA format after making a short- lived government with Ajit Pawar. He came back in power 30 months later as a deputy to Shinde, but continued to be the first choice of his party workers whenever the BJP is in a position to stake a claim to the CMO.