Elections 2019: It's a tough road for Kotak in city's North-East

Former MP Sanjay Dina Patil with BJP minister Vinod Tawde

The Mumbai North-East constituency that saw quite a tussle between the Shiv Sena and BJP over the rejection of ticket to the sitting MP has not elected its sitting MP in the immediate next election for the last 40 years. The 46 per cent Marathi voters in the segment will this year prove very decisive in sealing the fate of the two principal candidates here - Sanjay Dina Patil (NCP) and Manoj Kotak (BJP). Unlike the rest of Maharashtra where caste cards play prominently in deciding the winners, the politics in Mumbai relies heavily on ethnic groups that include several castes and regional forces (migrants). Marathis in Mumbai also include a sizable Dalit population.

The campaign for the April 29 polling has already begun, with Patil taking up a lead because of delay in an announcement by the BJP. The primary target of the candidates is the seven lakh Marathi voters. For Congress, the 2.35 lakh Muslims are equally important. For the BJP, the focus is also on the Gujaratis (1.81 lakh) and North Indians (1.51 lakh). Around two lakh other voters form a sizable chunk of the total 15.27 lakh voters in this constituency.

BJP's Mumbai North East candidate Manoj Kotak filed his papers on Monday

Once a Congress citadel, the constituency showed fluctuations after the Emergency Era. Marathi voters had created a sort of record by voting in the majority for the MNS candidate in 2009 elections. The splitting of votes had helped Patil win his first-ever MP election with a 2,000-vote margin. The phenomenon was witnessed across the city then, making the Congress-NCP an ultimate winner. The situation changed completely in 2014 though and this year, MNS is not in the contest. Since 1980, which was Subramanian Swami's (Janata Party) second stint here, the winner had to go home.

The Congress, Janata Party, BJP and NCP (one term) have won here. Swami, late Gurudas Kamat, late Pramod Mahajan, Kirit Somaiya, late Jayawantiben Mehta and Sanjay Patil have represented the segment. After delimitation that made things difficult for the Congress, Kamat shifted to North-West in 2009 and NCP was given the seat in the alliance. In the 2014 Modi wave, the BJP doubled its vote share to 61 per cent. Retaining the mammoth share is a real challenge for Kotak, a Gujarati while Patil, a Marathi, has his sights set on his community.

In the Assembly, the BJP has three seats, the Sena two and Samajwadi Party has one. A Muslim-dominated Shivaji Nagar-Mankhurd has been flavoring the Samajwadi Party since two Assembly elections.

46%
Percentage of Marathi voters in the constituency

2.35 lakh
No. of Muslim voters in the constituency

1.81 lakh
No. of Gujarati voters in the constituency

1.51 lakh
No. of North Indian voters in the constituency

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