Election 2019: Direct Congress-BJP battle in 15 seats

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, and other leaders during a rally in Wardha on Monday. Pics/PTI

With just a couple of candidates left to be declared for the Lok Sabha elections in the state, it appears that the two principal national parties, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress, will be locked in 15 straight fights. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Shiv Sena will see 10 straight fights.

There are 48 seats in the state. On Monday, the BJP started its campaign with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's rallies in the state from Vidarbha, where seven seats will go to polls on April 11. There will be three more phases in the state, with the last phase scheduled to be held on April 29, in which all seats in Mumbai and neighbouring regions will be decided.

Congress President Rahul Gandhi too is expected to address poll rallies in Vidarbha in the next couple of days. Barring Nagpur, where union minister Nitin Gadkari is pitted against a BJP rebel-turned-Congressman, Nana Patole, all other seats are rural, where the agrarian unrest will be a cause of concern for the BJP.

BJP supporters during PM Narendra Modi's rally at Wardha on Monday

Modi's first two rallies in Wardha, where BJP's sitting MP takes on a second-generation Congress leader, Charulata Rau Tokas, and Chandrapur, where union minister of state Hansraj Ahir has a challenge posed by a Sena rebel-turned-Congressman, Suresh Dhanorkar, revolved around the criticism of NCP's first family, the Pawars. He said the nephew (Ajit) was trying to gain control of the NCP, even as his uncle (Sharad Pawar) backed out of the electoral field fearing defeat.

Alliance on, but…

In 2014, the BJP had missed a clean sweep over the Congress by losing some seats like Nanded (Ashok Chavan won here). It had made inroads in western Maharashtra and with the Sena, wrested all six seats in Mumbai. The saffron alliance has been consolidated after a break-up in 2014 and constant bickering over the past five years. The two parties have come together but haven't been able to get the mid-level leadership working for each other.

Of Vidarbha's 10 seats, the Sena will contest four and the BJP has six that are entirely dependent on Gadkari and Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis' charisma. As far as announcement of candidates is concerned, the BJP hasn't decided on the nominee for Mumbai North-East, where the Sena doesn't want a sitting MP, Kirit Somaiya. The Congress is still undecided in Pune where it started the campaign without an official candidate. The Bahujan Vikas Aghadi hasn't named a candidate in Palghar as yet. There will be some three-corner fights as well.

The BJP has been banking on the national security issue and its increased political dominance in the local self-governments. As of now, the BJP is the single largest party at all levels in Maharashtra and it hopes to retain the position in Lok Sabha elections as well.

Preliminary analysis by the people in the know says that the Sena might emerge as the loser, because it will face NCP's strong candidates in some places. The BJP might be able to retain the number but not without struggling hard. In the other alliance, the NCP is expected to win more seats than the Congress despite the latter adding a few more seats to its previous tally.

48
Total number of Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra

April 29
Day for polling in Mumbai

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