Cong-NCP will fall 10 seats short: Bookies

Withu00a0Rs 100 crore riding on the poll results, techies conduct analytical studies, research crowd stats & past records to help bookies come to an informed guess

These aren't just figures pulled out of a hat. Every single bet placed by bookies in the over Rs 100-crore satta market of the Maharashtra polls is done after a thorough understanding of the candidate and the political future ahead.



At least 145 seats are required for a majority in the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly. Bookies say that the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) combine will win a minimum of 125 seats, but is more likely to have a winning combine of 135 seats. This means it will fall short of 10 seats to form the government.u00a0 While the Shiv Sena and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) together are expected to win at least a 100 seats, say bookmakers.

In a repeat of the Lok Sabha elections, earlier this year, bookies have pinned the Congress as the favourite to win 75 seats at odds of 22 paise. While its ally, the NCP is slotted to retain 35 seats at 32 paise odds.

Not surprisingly, the Shiv Sena is expected to bring in 60 seats at relatively higher odds of Rs 1.15, while the BJP should secure 50 seats at 22 paise.
Bookies are also banking on Raj Thackeray's MNS to get six seats at 35 paise.

Intensive research
Sources in the betting circles said the betting figures are based on intensive research and at least eight parameters are considered before a bookie places his bet. And in most cases, the predictions are unerringly accurate.

In fact, bookies also considered the number of volunteers hired on the day of elections and how much money is distributed to them.

Campaigning by party big wigs like Sonia Gandhi and actors like Salman Khan prior to the elections could often make a candidate favourite while laying bets.

Daddy's day out
Arun Gawli is not in the betting game because he has done very little work in the Sewri constituency added after delimitation. Byculla and Chinchpokli are considered his strongholds according to sources in the betting circles.

Numbers game
Annie Shekhar Congress Colaba 82 paise
vs
Raj Purohit, BJP Rs 1.15
Why: Bookies say they have considered Shekhar's past proven record in the constituency.u00a0 She is the sitting MLA for the past two years and this is her third run for the Colaba constituency. The voter turnout in Colaba at 36 per cent is also another important deciding factor tilting the balance in her favour.

Dagdu Sakpal Shiv Sena Sewri 70 paise
vs
Bala Nandgaonkar, MNS Rs 1.45
Why: The bookies have taken into consideration the Marathi vote bank in the area u2014 Lalbaug, Parel, Sewri. The fact that Sakpal has won three times from the constituency and is also the sitting MLA, has made him the hot favourite with the bookies.

Poonam Mahajan BJP Ghatkopar 65 paise
vs
Janet D'Souza, Congressu00a065 paise
Why: While bookies have taken into account the number of people who turned up in Mahajan's rally, Janet D'souza has won points on grassroot work in the area both important facts for laying bets. D'Souza's mother Celine D'Silva was a former MLA from Ghatkopar, which gives her a fighting chance to win.

Sada Sarvankar Congress Mahim 95 paise
vs
Adesh Bandekar, Shiv Sena 95 paise
Why: Bookies laid their bets after analysing media reports and opinion of political pundits because Sarvankar was not given ticket by the Sena. Instead, he was offered a ticket by the Congress. Adesh Bandekar is a popular Marathi TV host and though he is running for the first time, he has a shot at victory.

Basheer Patel Samajwadi Party, Mumbadevi 70 paise
vs
Amin Patel, Congressu00a0Rs 1.15
Why: The Sunni vote bank and campaigning by Bollywood hunk Sanjay Dutt in the area has made him a favourite. Amin Patel is a Shia candidate.

Prakash Mehta, BJP Ghatkopar 35 paise
vs
Virendra Bakshi Congress 65 paise
Why: Mehta is known for campaigning in advance and even before the election dates are declared, which is yet another factor making him a bookie favourite. In fact, his campaign was launched months before the dates were declared. There is a strong database of people who will vote for him.

Safezone
Sources revealed that most bookies will position themselves in the Kutch region of Gujarat and Rajasthan where betting is considered a safe option.
Others have moved to cities like Surat, Vadodara, Ahmedabad and Jaipur to avoid the dragnet laid by Mumbai police over the past few months.
Bookies like Shobhan Kalachowki, Laxmikant Thane, Manoj Metro, Subash Indore, Mukesh Dilli and Julie are hiring an army of assistants with a gamut of computers and cell phones to conduct business and accept bets on their behalf.